About 10 years ago, the Army War College began a long and detailed study into the outcomes of insurgencies. That research effort resulted in the Study of Internal Conflict (SOIC) which is now at the University of South Florida.
Consider this your invitation to attend a live webinar with Dr. Chris Mason, where the Global and National Security Institute will introduce SOIC to the University of South Florida and the world!
Click here to rsvp. Virtual spaces are limited.
Read more about SOIC below.
For consideration of a conflict in the research, SOIC uses the Correlates of War Project database as the starting point. Since 2016, the SOIC has systematically analyzed all the conflicts in the Correlates of War Project database and identified all human conflicts in the modern era that meet the following six criteria:
a. The conflict was an intrastate conflict, not an interstate conflict and not a war of colonial liberation.
b. The government of the state was itself a party to the conflict.
c. Because of the definition of “government victory,” the conflict ended at least two years prior to the date of the studies. For example, the Five Factor model accurately predicted the outcome of the civil war in Syria, but the conflict was not over long enough for inclusion into SOIC as a case study.
d. The internal rebellion sought either full control of the government or the creation of an independent breakaway country (i.e., political power, not a change in policy).
e. At least one thousand persons died (combatants and civilians) during a continuous twelve-month period at some point during the conflict, and as a direct result of the conflict.
f. The conflict began after the end of World War II, defined as May 1945 in Europe and August 1945 in the Pacific.
SOIC ultimately completed fifty-three double-blind case studies of insurgencies which occurred in five current combatant command regions. These are included in the data base (a half dozen others were determined not to meet the six criteria stated above). These studies, completed by over 120 research assistants, students, and faculty at the Army War College from 2016-2024 are highlighted below. The hyperlinks show the consolidated results of the double-blind studies by combatant command regions and includes the hundreds of authors and sources utilized.
a. SOUTHCOM: Costa Rica (1948), Cuba (1956-1959), Guatemala (1960-1996), Nicaragua (1978-1990), Columbia(1964-2016), El Salvador (1979-1992), Paraguay (1947), Peru (1980-2003)
b. EUCOM: Chechnya (1991-2000), Georgia (1992-1994), Greece (1944-1949), Kosovo (1998-1999), Ireland(1968-1998), Turkey (1984-1999)
c. CENTCOM: Iraq (2003-2011), Iraq (1961-1991), Lebanon (1975-1990), Oman (1962-1979), Afghanistan(1973-1989), Afghanistan (2001-2021), Tajikistan (1992-1997), Tibet (1956-1959)
d. AFRICOM: Chad (1965-1979), Algeria (1992-2002), Angola (1975-2002), Burundi (1993-2005), Cameroon(1960-1970), Congo (1996-2003), Eritrea (1960-1994), Liberia (1989-1996), Mozambique (1979-1992), Nigeria(1967-1970), Yemen (1962-1970), Rhodesia (1965-1980), Rwanda (1994), Sudan (1983-2005), Senegal (1982-2022), Sierra Leone(1991-2002), Uganda (1980-1986)
e. INDOPACOM: Indonesia (1976-2005), Indonesia (1949-1962), Indonesia (1957-1967), Nepal (1996-2006), India(1984-1993), Sri Lanka (1993-2005), Bougainville (1988-1998), Cambodia (1967-1975), China (1945-1949), Laos(1959-1975), Malaya (1947-1960), Vietnam (1955-1975), Thailand (1965-1983)
Publications utilizing the SOIC methodology are highlighted below.
· Mason, Chris. “COIN Doctrine is Wrong.” U.S. Army Parameters, 2021.
· Miller, John. “The Katanga Secession, the Five Factors Model, and Counterinsurgency (COIN) Theory.” Small Wars Journal, 21 November 2024.
· Mason, Chris. “Measuring and Quantifying State Fragility.” Found in Resilience and Resistance: Interdisciplinary Lessons in Competition, Deterrence, and Irregular Warfare, edited by Robert Burrell. Joint Special Operations University Press, 2025.
· Burrell, Robert and John Collison. “A Guide for Measuring Resiliency and Resistance.” Small Wars & Insurgencies, 14 December 2023.
· Mason, Chris and Robert S. Burrell, “America’s Relationship with Myanmar Is Deeply Flawed,” National Interest, 1 July 2025.
· Mason, Chris and Robert S. Burrell, “The Five Signs a Nation is Headed for Collapse,” At the Boundary Podcast, 12 May 2025.
If you read all that, then you need to attend the webinar!
The Resistance Newsletter is always free! If you like it, please share with a friend and grow our underground.
