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Intense Fighting in Myanmar Between the Junta and Rebels

Violence Will Likely Increase Over the Next Two Months

This recently released video by the Dawei Defense Force contains raw footage of the resistance contesting Junta forces in Myanmar’s Tanintharyi Region. The initial scene depicts a combatant performing corrective measures on his rifle while being fired upon. Impressively, he effectively manages to make his weapon system functional.

The context for this insightful combat film remains the fight to control a coastal road called “Union Highway.”

The Junta appears to be attempting to create a bridgehead in the resistance held region to stage national elections in the towns of Kawthoung, Dawei, Bokepyin and Myeik on 28 December 2025.

The popularly elected State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi, who remains imprisoned by the regime, has been barred from running for office. Many news agencies have labeled the elections, which are being backed by China, as a “sham.” Instead, General Min Aung Hlaing, who held a coup in 2021, is “seeking recognition for the elections to give its rule a veneer of legitimacy to gain acceptability so that business can carry on as usual.” Alarmingly, Min Aung Hlaing’s partners include China and North Korea. In September, the U.S. State Department and Treasury highlighted the role that North Korea is taking in providing arms to the junta.

In July, Dr. Chris Mason and I published a piece in the National Interest which argued that the civil war is doomed to fail and that the United States might better recognize the independence of some resistance movements, including the Kachin people.

Kachin has some of the largest rare earth deposits in the world, which China is exploiting for financial gain. Additionally, Kachin has a long history of positive relations with the United States.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian situation in the country remains dire. The United Nations is estimating over 1.5M refugees and asylum seekers spilling over into Bangladesh, Malaysia, Thailand, and India.

More to follow on Myanmar, as the elections appear to be intensifying fighting over the next couple months.

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